Real wages: is pay keeping up with prices?
Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers from the monthly jobs report, against consumer prices from the CPI. When pay grows faster than prices, the same hours buy more.
Through Sep 2026, the latest month with both
Where it stands
−0.7%
In the 12 months to Sep 2026, average hourly pay rose 3.0% and consumer prices rose 3.7%, so pay fell behind inflation by 0.7%.
Pay growth after inflation
The last 12 months
| Month | Pay | Prices | After inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | +3.0% | +3.7% | −0.7% |
| Aug 2026 | +3.1% | +3.4% | −0.2% |
| Jul 2026 | +3.2% | +3.3% | −0.1% |
| Jun 2026 | +3.4% | +3.5% | −0.1% |
| May 2026 | +3.3% | +4.2% | −0.8% |
| Apr 2026 | +3.6% | +3.8% | −0.2% |
| Mar 2026 | +3.4% | +3.3% | +0.1% |
| Feb 2026 | +3.7% | +2.4% | +1.2% |
| Jan 2026 | +3.7% | +2.4% | +1.2% |
| Dec 2025 | +3.7% | +2.7% | +1.0% |
| Nov 2025 | +3.9% | +2.7% | +1.2% |
| Sep 2025 | +3.8% | +3.0% | +0.8% |
Each figure is the change from the same month a year earlier. Pay: average hourly earnings of all private-sector employees, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. Prices: CPI-U, seasonally adjusted. Both via FRED (CES0500000003 and CPIAUCSL).
Reading it
This is an average across all private-sector jobs, so it moves when the mix of jobs changes, not only when individual paychecks do. When many lower-paid jobs disappear at once, as in spring 2020, the average jumps even though no one got a raise.
The pay figure comes out with the jobs report, usually a week or two before the CPI for the same month, so for part of each month the newest pay figure has no price figure to match yet.